Introduction
Background
In spite of the fact that its entire effects will not be acknowledged and well-known for numerous years, the 2007 – 2008 financial crisis is already deemed as one of the major financial problems in history. There is an overall covenant that trust and confidence played significant roles in the financial crisis and are pivotal to any efficacious plan for proper recovery. Akin to all preceding financial crisis, at the source of the problem lies a loss of confidence by investors and the general public in the strength of key financial establishments and markets (Earle, 2009). The reason for this study is that confidence plays a large role in how money is invested, where it is placed, and what markets will do. Everything from bonds to equities to precious metals and even blockchain is impacted by confidence. Banks must have some sense of their confidence levels should another economic crisis hit. If confidence is low, knowing that can give banks an opportunity to de-leverage and reduce risk in order to better survive an economic crisis.
Statement of the Problem
There are two key points that prompted this research study. First, Senior Global Economist Joseph Lupton (2018) at J.P. Morgan pointed out that global sovereign debt has blown up by 26 percentage points of the gross domestic product (GDP) since 2007. Secondly, J. P. Morgan Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon (2017) noted that bearing in mind that quantitative easing has never been done on this magnitude and we do not entirely know the myriad effects it has had on asset prices, confidence, capital expenditures and other factors, we are unable to completely know the effects of its reversal. In this regard, the major issue facing the international banking industry, with debt levels so high and rates rising, is whether bankers are any better positioned to withstand a similar or worse crisis than that of 2007-2009.
There is a significant need to address this problem as the Great Recession continues to be fresh in the minds of many and the likelihood of another, even more severe recession looming (Mauldin, 2018). Gaining an understanding of confidence and position of international banks can play a key role in developing a sense whether defaults in one region of the world, for instance, the United States, China or Italy, will have an influence on the banking industry as a whole (Bouvatier and Delatte, 2015) and whether there is need for taking precautions at the moment. In the preceding financial crisis of 2007 – 2009, individual banks necessitated bailouts from central banking establishments owing to the reason that they lacked preparation for failure and the failure of some could have resulted in failures across the board (Bruno and Shin, 2005). At the present moment, it is not well known whether international banks are in a better position to endure a similar or even worse financial crisis. Despite the fact that stress tests are undertaken regularly, these do not always unveil the actual magnitude to which a crisis could influence the industry.
Purpose of the Study
The purpose of this quantitative study is to assess the confidence levels of members of the international banking community with respect to the sector’s ability to weather another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009 following the collapse of sub-prime in the U.S. and the tidal wave of defaults across the global banking sector which only found relief through central banking intervention (Haitsma, Unalmis & de Haan, 2016; Heller, 2017). The goal of the research is to better understand the extent to which the international banking sector is prepared for another possible global economic crisis. To understand the industry’s confidence, it is helpful to address the community directly and obtain from the horse’s mouth, so to speak, how vulnerable real life bankers feel in 2018, what with a trade war between the U.S. and China possibly turning into a hot war, numerous countries around the world audibly voicing their desire to begin getting away from the USD as a result of too many economic sanctions flowing out of Washington in recent years, and the Federal Reserve intent on initiating quantitative tightening.
Thus, the intent of this study is to assess the confidence of members of the international banking community with regard to whether the sector can safely handle another global economic crisis like that seen in 2007-2009 and whether geo-political awareness impacts that confidence level.
Need for the Study
The reason for this study is that confidence plays a large role in how money is invested, where it is placed, and what markets will do. Everything from bonds to equities to precious metals and even blockchain is impacted by confidence. Banks must have some sense of their confidence levels should another economic crisis hit. If confidence is low, knowing that can give banks an opportunity to de-leverage and reduce risk in order to better survive an economic crisis.
Research Questions
The research questions for this study are:
Q1): Is the international banking sector confident that it can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009?
Q2): Does geo-political awareness impact how confident members of the international banking community feel about whether the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009?
Q3): Does awareness of rising debt levels around the world and changes in central bank monetary policy (i.e., going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening) impact how confident members of the international banking community feel about whether the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009?
The research questions align with the research problem by focusing on the problem points raised by Lupton (2018) and Dimon (2017) with regard to rising debt levels and changing monetary policy and the question of whether banks are ready for these challenges. The questions align with the purpose statement by focusing on the need to assess the confidence levels of bankers in the international banking community to ensure that they are prepared for what could be a coming recession that is worse than the last (Mauldin, 2018). Based on the survey data that will be collected, the constructs of confidence, geo-political awareness and awareness of debt and QT can be measured.
Hypotheses
Null Hypotheses
The hypotheses of the study are:
H01: The international banking sector is not confident that it can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009
H02: Members of the international banking community with geo-political awareness do not feel confident that the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009
H03: Members of the international banking community with awareness of rising debt levels around the world and changes in central bank monetary policy (i.e., going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening) do not feel confident that the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009.
Alternative Hypotheses
H11: The international banking sector is confident that it can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009
H12: Members of the international banking community with geo-political awareness do feel confident that the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009.
H13: Members of the international banking community with awareness of rising debt levels around the world and changes in central bank monetary policy (i.e., going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening) do feel confident that the sector can handle another global economic crisis like that seen from 2007-2009.
Definition of Key Terms
1. Quantitative Easing (QE): This is an exceptional monetary policy in which a central bank buys government securities or other kinds of securities from the market so as to diminish interest rates and increase the money supply. QE instigates a rise in money supply by saturating financial establishments with capital in an endeavor to stimulate increased lending and liquidity.
2. Confidence: The conviction that is founded on experience or proof, such as previous performance, that certain events in the future will take place as expected.
3. Global financial crisis: This is a financial crisis that impacts numerous nationals at the similar time. It is a period of severe predicaments and challenges which financial institutions, markets, corporations and consumers experience at the same time. In the course of a global financial crisis, financial establishments lose confidence and cease lending to each other and traders cease purchasing financial instruments. In the end, majority of lending ceases and business significantly suffer.
Theoretical Framework
Trust, Confidence and Regulators, Banks and the Public
The roles of trust and confidence can be associated with the three key players including the regulators, the banks, and the general public. In a free society overseen by the rights and responsibilities of its citizens, most transactions must be intentional, which, of necessity, presumes trust in the world between those who undertake business transactions. According to Earle (2009), for market success, there is a need for a trust between individual and institutions, which is made possible by regulation. Market systems are dependent on regulation to function and operate in an efficacious manner. They are instituted through legal, organizational and contractual means, at dissimilar magnitudes of formality. Reputation and the trust it cultivates have always manifested to be the fundamental attributes necessitated of competitive markets. When trust is lost, then the capability of a nation to undertake transactions is palpably destabilized. Governments do not have the capability to legislate for moral feeling. However, there is a central regulatory role to be played in the restoration of public confidence in the integrity and efficacy of institutions, whose main objective is not fundamentally to enrich persons but to apportion investment throughout the economy (Tonkiss, 2009).
The issue of trust and confidence with banks emanated from the aspect that the banks were more vested in collateral rather than character (Six and Verhoest, 2017). Prior to the financial crisis, interpersonal interrelation and individual judgments were supplanted by impersonal, mechanized ways of examining credit-worthiness and the value of assets. Consequently, the bankers were making decisions devoid of knowing the whole thing known by the structures of the securities they were acquiring. These investors probably depended on incessant relationships with bankers and on ratings. The general public who are the investors do not have the resources to individually examine such intricate structures and at the end of the day, depend to a lesser magnitude on the information regarding the structure and the basics and more on the relationship with the product retailer (Earle, 2009). The third player in the framework considers the general public. Notably, as outlined by Earle (2009), the general public was a contributing factor to the financial crisis by purchasing houses they could not afford, increasing the prices of houses, and taking part in the mass misunderstanding that house prices solely increase.
The Trust, Confidence, and Cooperation (TCC) Model
Trust is social and interactive whereas confidence is contributory and calculative. Trust is delineated as the inclination, in the anticipation of beneficial results, to make oneself susceptible to another centered on a judgment of resemblance of intentions or values. On the other hand, confidence considers the belief, centered on experience or proof, that particular events in the forthcoming periods will take place as expected (Earle, 2009). The trust, confidence, and cooperation model is designed to provide numerous beneficial purposes. The first purpose is unification. The model provides a framework within which all manifestations of trust and confidence can be construed and associated to one another. The second purpose is specification. To a greater magnitude than available substitutes, it ascertains the basis psychological procedures involved in judgments of trust and confidence. The third purpose is clarification. At the midst of the TCC model is an unequivocal interrelation between confidence and trust, a key basis of confusion in other approaches. The last purpose considers the creation of new insights and understandings. By uniting and bringing more specificity and transparency to the understanding of trust and confidence, the TCC model of cooperation outlines the prospectively profitable connections with other areas of social psychological and applied research (Earle, Siegrist, and Gutscher, 2010).
The basis for trust is a judgment of resemblance between one individual and another, there the individual to be trusted would act as the trusting individual would. Therefore, trust is centered on social relations, more specifically on shared values. The measurement of shared values can be undertaken in dissimilar manners (Earle, 2009). Based on empirical studies, trust has been shown in dissimilar manners by measures of in-group membership, ethics, benevolence, integrity, inferred traits and intentions, fairness and caring (Earle, Siegrist, and Gutscher, 2010). The foundation for confidence is past performance, or establishments and practices that are designed to limit future performance. In regard to shared values, past performance in addition to establishments or practices that control performance can be measured in a range of ways. These comprise of indicators of proof, regulations, contracts, procedures, accounting, competence social roles, experience, and criteria. Both trust and confidence, in a variety of combinations, can give rise to different forms of cooperation (Earle, Siegrist, and Gutscher, 2010).
This is illustrated by the diagram below. Social trust is positioned on the upper path whereas confidence is positioned on the lower path. As demonstrated on the far most leftward side of the model, the information seen by an individual is split into two different kinds. The first one is which is judged to be pertinent to morality. The second one is which is judged pertinent to performance. In this theoretical framework, morality information is like actions mirroring the values of an agent. Imperatively, the values of an agent delineate a relationship or association of trust, and it is within that relationship that performance information and the confidence to which it leads are judged (Earle, Siegrist, and Gutscher, 2010).
Figure 1: The trust, confidence, and cooperation (TCC) model (Source: Earle and Siergrist, 2006)
Brief Review of Literature
Trust and Confidence Definition
The distinction between trust and confidence is imperative in providing guidance on how to institute or reinstate trust or confidence, which consequently will provide a foundation for supportive action. Earle (2009) defined trust as the inclination, in the anticipation of beneficial results to make oneself susceptible to another on the basis of a judgment of comparison of intentions or values. On the other hand, confidence is defined as the belief that is centered on experience or proof, that particular future events will take place as anticipated. Earle and Siegrist (2006) assert that both trust and confidence support collaboration. However, despite the fact that confidence has a particular criterion for performance, trust is positioned in the freedom of the other. In other words, in the case of trust the other has the freedom to act in manners that point out shared values, irrespective of whether specific acts are anticipated or not. The precursors of trust, as pinpointed in a wide range of empirical studies, encompass social associations, in-group affiliation, ethics, compassion, honesty, inferred individualities and purposes, fairness, and caring n(Earle and Siegrist, 2006). These precursors are specified by morality-pertinent information. The foundation for confidence is previous performance or institutions intended to limit future performance. The precursors of confidence are wide-ranging, comprising awareness, evidence, regulations, rule or procedures, contracts, accounting, social roles, capability, experience, proficiency, and principles. These precursors are specified by performance-pertinent information (Earle and Siegrist, 2006). Trust and confidence play a key role not only in precipitation but also prospective recovery in the three key sets of actors in the financial crisis including the regulators, banks and the public.
Trust and Confidence and Correlation with Key Players
With regard to regulators, during the financial crisis, lack of trust in the validity of banks’ accounting records together with other financial institutions in the framework of insufficient capital resulted in a major uncertainty in lending to them. The outcomes were a freezing up of credit. Notably, laws and legislations at best can commend solely a minimal proportion of the everyday activities in the marketplace. When there is a loss in trust, then the capability of the nation to transact business is profoundly destabilized (Earle, 2009). With regard to banks, by the time the bubble took place, bankers were making decisions devoid of the knowledge of all aspects known by the structure of the securities they were purchasing. The investors probably depended on continuous relationships with bankers and on ratings. Confidence has been supplanted by trust, sustained by the rapture of the bubble. Even though high profits ought to indicate high risk, high trust generates low perceived risk. At the end, when the bubble burst and failure of banks began, trust and low perceived risk were fast supplanted by distrust and panic (Earle, 2009). The other key player is the general public. The general public played a contributory role to the housing bubble by purchasing houses they were unable to afford, causing a rise in the prices of houses and taking part in the huge delusion that house prices solely increase. When the bubble burst, the general public rapidly changed its emphasis from trust to confidence and its loss of it. A nationwide public poll demonstrated that public confidence in the manner things in the nation were being undertaken was at an all-time high (Earle, 2009).
Tonkiss (2009) asserts that the snatching up of interbank lending is not so much a failure of trust but is rather a crisis of confidence. In the event that banks lack comprehensive information concerning the value of other banks’ assets and liabilities, and as a result their credit risk, they lack a foundation on which to make sensibly weighted decisions regarding lending. Owing to the lack of dependable information, they lack confidence that the borrower is in a position to repay the loan. If, on the other hand, banks are doubtful that their partners in these interchanges are, or may be, lying about their asset values or about their capital reserves, this signifies a failure of trust. Basically, in the lack of dependable mechanisms of confidence, one falls back of trust to as to make decisions and in an endeavor to cope with risk. The financial system crisis has encompassed precisely the collapse of these kinds of mechanisms of confidence, which are the failure or misrepresentation of information, agreement and regulation. These are deemed to be the means through which a crisis of the stock market escalates into a trust crisis (Tonkiss, 2009).
Post Financial Crisis and the Banking Industry
Lupton (2018) points out that since 2008, there has been a significant amount of healing and restoration that has taken place since the financial crisis. However, there are key concerns that continue to linger on. First of all, there is the major decline in the long-run growth potential and depressed productivity growth. Statistics indicate that the international potential growth has declined to 2.7 percent in the past 10 years, which is an additional decline of 0.3 percent compared to the previous decade. Mauldin (2018) asserts that the next financial recession could be experienced as soon as the onset of the 2019 financial year or the culmination of 2020. This is largely owing to the reason that the economy has been extensively stretched out and consumer spending, which is the key driver of the economy is starting to become sluggish. Furthermore, the consumers have amassed as much debt as they can hand, and consumer savings are remarkably low. Moreover, the author asserts that the gross domestic product (GDP) is slowing down and also corporate cuts will not be an effective solution.
Lupton (2018) also indicates that banks are no longer susceptible as they were before. Specifically, global banks have faced an unparalleled level of regulatory examination and inspection in the aftermath of the crisis and have never been better placed from a solvency and liquidity standpoint heading into the forthcoming prospective recession. Despite the fact that the capability to predict the precise series of events that could instigate another recession is restricted, there is a very minimal likelihood that banks will be the trigger in the next recession. It is deemed that in the forthcoming crisis, there will be a banking system that is stronger than ever before. In this regard, trust and confidence can be deemed to be reinstated into the market. As pointed out by Lupton (2018), a decade ago, the financial system was entirely exposed. Imperatively, government across the globe made investments using taxpayers’ money in order to ensure banks did not fail. Furthermore, the central banks were impelled to utilize unconventional monetary policy to support markets and regulators came into the fold to attempt to make certain that a liquidity crisis of that magnitude could not occur again. In the contemporary setting, capital and leverage ratios for banks are substantially stronger and the major banks are better placed from a solvency and liquidity standpoint into the subsequent potential recession. What is more, banks are less intricate and experience harsh stress tests on a yearly basis to ascertain their capability to ensure severe losses.
In the banking industry, confidence in a bank’s stability is pivotal. The global economy ranging through Japan and Asia, Europe and Latin America, as well as the United States have been operating quite well, specifically better than anticipated. In particular, the United States’ economy continues to strengthen. The tax system that is largely competitive, a more positive regulatory setting, and very high consumer and business confidence are progressively more signs that the economy will probably expand. The rate of unemployment might probably decline and there are increasing signs that business will enhance capital expenditures and result in an increase in payrolls. All of these indications give rise to a positive outlook for the economy in the forthcoming (Dimon, 2017). The marketplace understanding that financial establishments and investors were going to experience huge losses is a key reason why there was a shattering loss of confidence in the financial system. Dimon (2017) insists that there is a significant need for maintaining trust and confidence in businesses akin to all establishments. This is largely for the reason that confidence is a pivotal element that does not cost much but plays a significant role in the growth of the economy.
Banking Integration
A significant setback of international capital flow has occurred in the course of the Great Recession. For instance, statistics indicated that in 2013, the cross-border capital flows levels were 40 percent of the levels in 2007. Whereas the reversal attained an extraordinary degree in all extensive categories of flows, the significant deterioration in activity was in international bank loans extended cross-border. In contrast to predictable insight, Bouvatier and Delatte (2015) established that the international banking integration external to the euro area has been persistently rising since 1999 and has even fortified subsequent to the crisis. The authors established that in contrast, international banking integration of the European region has been cyclical since 1999 with a peak being attained in 2006 and a full reversal taking place from that time. This deterioration is not a correction of preceding overshooting, but it is rather a perceptible disintegration. This highlight broad-scale banking integration, and the response of the international banking system to the Great Recession, noting that international flows have rebounded much more strongly than within the EU. This may be a function of flows to emerging markets, whereas within the EU flows did not rebound because most markets are more mature (Bouvatier and Delatte, 2015).
Comprehending the institutional framework for the banking sector is imperative in addressing the association between capital flows and leverage. According to Bruno and Shin (2015), the impelling cause for banking sector capital flows is the leverage sequence of global banks. The growth in credit in the recipient economy is delineated, to some extent, by the changes in global liquidity that trail the leverage cycle of the global banks. Specifically, the authors investigate the correlation between low interest rates in advanced economics and credit booms amidst the appreciation of currencies in emerging economies. Utilizing theoretical modeling and VAR, the authors demonstrate that there is a positive correlation between decreases in banking funding costs in the U.S with rises in bank leverage through risk mitigation (Bruno and Shin, 2015). Haitsma, Unalmis & de Haan (2016) examined the responses of the stock market to policies implemented by the European Central Bank. The goal was to identify potential issues in different types of monetary policies impacting the market. Results were based mainly on an analysis of the EURO STOXX 50 Index. The authors also identify the credit channel concerns in relation to the EURO STOXX 50 Index. Another key finding in the research is that shifts in monetary policy have a more direct impact on the performance of stocks that were previously underperforming than to more highly valued entries.
Summary
Research Method
Measurement
This research study adopts a qualitative research approach. This approach was deemed to be ideal for this research study as it is employed for quantifying opinions, behaviors, and perceptions of the research subjects to infer from a larger sample population. The research method deemed to be fitting for this study is through questionnaires. One of the key advantages of this method is that it is cost effective owing to the reason that a lot of data amounts can be gathered from a large population sample. Another advantage is that this research method is beneficial in gathering objective data and information from the subjects with marginal impact on validity and reliability. The sample will consist of 1000 bankers from around the world, all within the international banking sector and of all ranks and levels within the industry. Age, race, gender, ethnicity, religion and nationality will be considered as factors for the purpose of this study and so demographics will be asked of participants in the survey to help provide further input into what variables are impactful. The questionnaires will be distributed to the research participants in different ways including in person, through email, or over the phone. The number was to ensure a good representation of the entire population to attain high levels of accuracy. This technique was used since it is simple and allows one to collect both qualitative and quality data for analysis.
Summary
Theoretical implications include the possibility that this research could be used to raise awareness among bankers in the community about the industry’s overall state of readiness in the face of coming financial and monetary changes. To ensure generalizability, the study will follow the recommendations of Lincoln and Guba (1985) and Seale (1999). Generalizability can be ensured by carefully describing the methodology used in one’s research and by showing that the research measures what it intended to measure and thus has validity; and that the study’s findings could be duplicated again should another researcher choose to follow the same methodology and use a similar sample, thus showing that the study has reliability (Golfshani, 2003).
References
Bouvatier, V., & Delatte, A. L. (2015). Waves of international banking integration: A tale of regional differences. European Economic Review, 80, 354-373.
Bruno, V., & Shin, H. S. (2015). Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 71, 119-132.
Dimon, J. (2017). Letter to shareholders. Retrieved from: https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2017/ar-ceo-letters.htm
Earle, T. C. (2009). Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 29(6), 785-792.
Earle, T. C., & Siegrist, M. (2006). Morality Information, Performance Information, and the Distinction Between Trust and Confidence 1. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 36(2), 383-416.
Earle, T. C., Siegrist, M., & Gutscher, H. (2010). Trust, risk perception and the TCC model of cooperation. Trust in risk management: Uncertainty and scepticism in the public mind, 1-50.
Golafshani, N. (2003). Understanding reliability and validity in qualitative research. The Qualitative Report, 8(4), 597–606.
Haitsma, R., Unalmis, D., & de Haan, J. (2015). The impact of the ECB’s conventional and unconventional monetary policies on stock markets. Journal of Macroeconomics, 48, 101-116.
Heller, R. (2017). Monetary mischief and the debt trap. Cato Journal, 37(2), 247-261.
Lincoln, Y. & Guba, E. (1985). Naturalistic inquiry. London: Sage.
Lupton, J. (2018). 10 years after the financial crisis. Retrieved from : https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/10-years-after-crisis
Mauldin, J. (2018). The next recession might be worse than the Great Depression. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/03/20/the-next-recession-might-be-worse-than-the-great-depression/#6df9e2469b97
Seale, C. (1999). The quality of qualitative research. London: Sage.
Six, F., & Verhoest, K. (Eds.). (2017). Trust in regulatory regimes. Edward Elgar Publishing.
Tonkiss, F. (2009). Trust, confidence and economic crisis. Intereconomics, 44(4), 196-202.
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