# Supply Chain Management Analysis

#### Introduction

Supply Chain Management Analysis

1. Consider using a simple moving average model.  Experiment with models using five weeks’ and three weeks’ past data. The past data in each region is given below  (week  -1 is the week before week  1 in the table,  -2 is two weeks before week  1, ).
 Week 5 4 3 2 1 Mean Average for the previous period Mean absolute deviation Mean absolute percentage error Analysis Atlanta 45 38 30 58 37 41.6 40 7.92 4% Increasing Boston 62 18 48 40 35 40.6 42 11.52 -3.33% Decreasing Chicago 62 22 72 44 48 49.6 47 13.92 5.53% Increasing Dallas 42 35 40 64 43 44.8 48 7.68 -6.67% Decreasing LA 43 40 54 46 35 43.6 46 5.12 -5.33% Decreasing Total 254 153 244 252 198 220.2 222 35.76 -0.81% Decreasing

##### 2    Next, consider using a simple exponential smoothing model.

In your analysis,   test two alpha values,  .2  and  .4. Use the same criteria for evaluating the model as in question J. Assume that the initial previous forecast for the modeling an alpha value of .2 is the past three-week average.  For the model using. an alpha of .4, assume that the previous forecast is the past five-week average.

α = 2, an analysis of the three weeks using a simple exponential smoothing model

 Week 3 2 1 Atlanta 30 58 37 Boston 48 40 35 Chicago 72 44 48 Dallas 40 64 43 LA 54 46 35 Total 244 252 198

t=1, s1=30

t=2, st=αxt – 1 +(1-α)st- 1

s2=αx2 – 1 + (1-α)s2 – 1

s2=2(58) +(-1)30

s2=86

t=3, s3=2(37) + (-1)86

s3= -12

Using the same analogy the rest of the table will be completed as follows

 Week 3 2 1 Mean α=2 Atlanta 30 58 37 41.7 S1=30, s2=86, s3=-12 Boston 48 40 35 41 S1=48,s2=32,s3=38 Chicago 72 44 48 54.7 S1=72,s2=16,s3=80 Dallas 40 64 43 49 S1=40,s2=88,s3=-2 LA 54 46 35 45 S1=54,s2=38,s3=32 Total 244 252 198 231.3

When α=4, for the five periods, the model will look like this;

 Week 5 4 3 2 1 Mean α=4 Atlanta 45 38 30 58 37 41.6 S1=45,s2=95.86,s3=139.58 Boston 62 18 48 40 35 40.6 S1=62,s2=114,s3=534,s4=1442,s5=4466 Chicago 62 22 72 44 48 49.6 S1=62,s2=-98,s3=582,s4=1570,s5=4902 Dallas 42 35 40 64 43 44.8 S1=42,s2=14,s3=118,s4=-98,s5=466 LA 43 40 54 46 35 43.6 S1=43,s2=31,s3=123,s4=5,s5=695 Total 254 153 244 252 198 220.2

Series 1= α=2

Series 2= α=4

##### Model VC202 where, instead of using five distributors, only a single distributor would be used.  Evaluate this option by analyzing how accurate the forecast would be based on the demand aggregated across all regions.

The best method is the simple exponential smooth model using α=2. This is because it is easy to calculate and using a smaller alpha makes the chances of making an error minimal. The main reason for forecasting before entering into a new market is to be able to budget for the endeavor. At the same time, it gives a clear picture of the viability of the idea of the company selling its products in Thai using a single distributor.

##### Some of the advantages of using exponential smooth model are;
• It applies the previous predictions to what happened on the ground and finally paints a clear picture of the next forecast using the difference between the previous two.
• It creates an account for the difference between the previous forecast and the results on the ground. This aids in avoiding certain mistakes (Chou, 1989).
##### Some of the disadvantages of the method include;
• It is based on baseline forecasts that easily rise and fall with the change in time.
• The method does not account for other changes that are a result of other factors in the business that are qualitative in nature.
• It is based on using previous sales to forecast future sales without considering changes in the time that affect sales (Bradley, 2007).

Some of the advantages of aggregating demand include;

-it aids in planning as budgeting for time and other resources can easily be established.

-it reduces overhead because it costs less to have and maintain aggregate inventory.

-it reduces employment fluctuations as a business can easily predict their staff requirements over a fiscal year.

Some of the disadvantages are;

-aggregate planning can reduce the flexibility of the company as there is no specific nature of dealing with one particular factor in the production process (Lewis, 1963).

-as much as there is an increase in production rate, aggregate demand can lead to a business experiencing some diseconomies of scale that will reduce the profitability of the company.

#### References

Bradley, T. (2007). Essential Statistics for Economics, Business, and Management, Random House Publishers

Chou, L. Y. (1989). Statistical Analysis: with Business and Economic Application, Thai Publishers

Lewis, E. E. (1963). Methods of Statistical Analysis in Economics and Business, Orthodox Print Press, New York

## Get Professional Assignment Help Cheaply

Are you busy and do not have time to handle your assignment? Are you scared that your paper will not make the grade? Do you have responsibilities that may hinder you from turning in your assignment on time? Are you tired and can barely handle your assignment? Are your grades inconsistent?

Whichever your reason is, it is valid! You can get professional academic help from our service at affordable rates. We have a team of professional academic writers who can handle all your assignments.

## Why Choose Our Academic Writing Service?

• Plagiarism free papers
• Timely delivery
• Skilled, Experienced Native English Writers
• Subject-relevant academic writer
• Adherence to paper instructions
• Ability to tackle bulk assignments
• Reasonable prices
• 24/7 Customer Support
• Get superb grades consistently

## Online Academic Help With Different Subjects

### Literature

Students barely have time to read. We got you! Have your literature essay or book review written without having the hassle of reading the book. You can get your literature paper custom-written for you by our literature specialists.

### Finance

Do you struggle with finance? No need to torture yourself if finance is not your cup of tea. You can order your finance paper from our academic writing service and get 100% original work from competent finance experts.

### Computer science

Computer science is a tough subject. Fortunately, our computer science experts are up to the match. No need to stress and have sleepless nights. Our academic writers will tackle all your computer science assignments and deliver them on time. Let us handle all your python, java, ruby, JavaScript, php , C+ assignments!

### Psychology

While psychology may be an interesting subject, you may lack sufficient time to handle your assignments. Don’t despair; by using our academic writing service, you can be assured of perfect grades. Moreover, your grades will be consistent.

### Engineering

Engineering is quite a demanding subject. Students face a lot of pressure and barely have enough time to do what they love to do. Our academic writing service got you covered! Our engineering specialists follow the paper instructions and ensure timely delivery of the paper.

### Nursing

In the nursing course, you may have difficulties with literature reviews, annotated bibliographies, critical essays, and other assignments. Our nursing assignment writers will offer you professional nursing paper help at low prices.

### Sociology

Truth be told, sociology papers can be quite exhausting. Our academic writing service relieves you of fatigue, pressure, and stress. You can relax and have peace of mind as our academic writers handle your sociology assignment.

We take pride in having some of the best business writers in the industry. Our business writers have a lot of experience in the field. They are reliable, and you can be assured of a high-grade paper. They are able to handle business papers of any subject, length, deadline, and difficulty!

### Statistics

We boast of having some of the most experienced statistics experts in the industry. Our statistics experts have diverse skills, expertise, and knowledge to handle any kind of assignment. They have access to all kinds of software to get your assignment done.

### Law

Writing a law essay may prove to be an insurmountable obstacle, especially when you need to know the peculiarities of the legislative framework. Take advantage of our top-notch law specialists and get superb grades and 100% satisfaction.

## What discipline/subjects do you deal in?

We have highlighted some of the most popular subjects we handle above. Those are just a tip of the iceberg. We deal in all academic disciplines since our writers are as diverse. They have been drawn from across all disciplines, and orders are assigned to those writers believed to be the best in the field. In a nutshell, there is no task we cannot handle; all you need to do is place your order with us. As long as your instructions are clear, just trust we shall deliver irrespective of the discipline.

## Are your writers competent enough to handle my paper?

Our essay writers are graduates with bachelor's, masters, Ph.D., and doctorate degrees in various subjects. The minimum requirement to be an essay writer with our essay writing service is to have a college degree. All our academic writers have a minimum of two years of academic writing. We have a stringent recruitment process to ensure that we get only the most competent essay writers in the industry. We also ensure that the writers are handsomely compensated for their value. The majority of our writers are native English speakers. As such, the fluency of language and grammar is impeccable.

## What if I don’t like the paper?

There is a very low likelihood that you won’t like the paper.

### Reasons being:

• When assigning your order, we match the paper’s discipline with the writer’s field/specialization. Since all our writers are graduates, we match the paper’s subject with the field the writer studied. For instance, if it’s a nursing paper, only a nursing graduate and writer will handle it. Furthermore, all our writers have academic writing experience and top-notch research skills.
• We have a quality assurance that reviews the paper before it gets to you. As such, we ensure that you get a paper that meets the required standard and will most definitely make the grade.

### In the event that you don’t like your paper:

• The writer will revise the paper up to your pleasing. You have unlimited revisions. You simply need to highlight what specifically you don’t like about the paper, and the writer will make the amendments. The paper will be revised until you are satisfied. Revisions are free of charge
• We will have a different writer write the paper from scratch.
• Last resort, if the above does not work, we will refund your money.

## Will the professor find out I didn’t write the paper myself?

Not at all. All papers are written from scratch. There is no way your tutor or instructor will realize that you did not write the paper yourself. In fact, we recommend using our assignment help services for consistent results.

## What if the paper is plagiarized?

We check all papers for plagiarism before we submit them. We use powerful plagiarism checking software such as SafeAssign, LopesWrite, and Turnitin. We also upload the plagiarism report so that you can review it. We understand that plagiarism is academic suicide. We would not take the risk of submitting plagiarized work and jeopardize your academic journey. Furthermore, we do not sell or use prewritten papers, and each paper is written from scratch.

## When will I get my paper?

You determine when you get the paper by setting the deadline when placing the order. All papers are delivered within the deadline. We are well aware that we operate in a time-sensitive industry. As such, we have laid out strategies to ensure that the client receives the paper on time and they never miss the deadline. We understand that papers that are submitted late have some points deducted. We do not want you to miss any points due to late submission. We work on beating deadlines by huge margins in order to ensure that you have ample time to review the paper before you submit it.

## Will anyone find out that I used your services?

We have a privacy and confidentiality policy that guides our work. We NEVER share any customer information with third parties. Noone will ever know that you used our assignment help services. It’s only between you and us. We are bound by our policies to protect the customer’s identity and information. All your information, such as your names, phone number, email, order information, and so on, are protected. We have robust security systems that ensure that your data is protected. Hacking our systems is close to impossible, and it has never happened.

## How our Assignment  Help Service Works

#### 1.      Place an order

You fill all the paper instructions in the order form. Make sure you include all the helpful materials so that our academic writers can deliver the perfect paper. It will also help to eliminate unnecessary revisions.

#### 2.      Pay for the order

Proceed to pay for the paper so that it can be assigned to one of our expert academic writers. The paper subject is matched with the writer’s area of specialization.

#### 3.      Track the progress

You communicate with the writer and know about the progress of the paper. The client can ask the writer for drafts of the paper. The client can upload extra material and include additional instructions from the lecturer. Receive a paper.